Simulation #2: The IMF, Brazil, and Argentina

Brazil is faced with yet another threat to its economic and political stability: Argentina has had a financial meltdown in the past couple of months. The Argentine president has been forced to resign in disgrace and, following two frantic weeks in which five presidents have emerged and been replaced, the country is nearing political chaos. As Argentina's prime economic partner, Brazil's economy is dealing with an increasingly more nervous private sector, including foreign investors who are on the verge of abandoning the region. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pledged to help Brazil and it is intent on making sure that the country does not go the way of Argentina. An IMF team of experts, led by a famous American economist, is on its way to Brasília, to negotiate a new letter of intent with the President of Brazil. Complicating things is the fact that it is an election year. The president has been in power for two terms and cannot run again. He/she seeks to elect a specific successor, the former Minister of Health, on the president's ticket, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). Yet this individual is only third in national polls, behind the candidate of the Workers Party and the President of the Senate (PFL). The governor of Minas Gerais is fourth in the polls. The way the president responds to the IMF, the Argentine government, U.S. pressure, and various domestic actors will greatly determine how this president's legacy is remembered and how likely he will be to elect his successor.

Brazil Group (14 players)

The President (PSDB)

Minister of the Economy

Head of the National Development Bank

Minister of Defense

President of the Senate (PFL)

PSDB Presidential Candidate

Chair of the Chamber of Deputies (PMDB)

Head of the Workers's Party

President of the Peak Association (CUT)

Governor of São Paulo (PMDB)

Governor of Minas Gerais (no party)

President of the FIESP (business)

Leader of the "Shirtless Ones" (social movement)

Representative of the Ianomami Indians

The IMF Team (3 players)

Famous American economist, leader

IMF technocrat #1 (German)

IMF technocrat #2 (Italian)

International Actors (6 players)

Interim president of Argentina

U.S. Ambassador to Brazil

U.S. Treasury Secretary

Soros Securities

Human Rights Watch

U.S. Steel